What paid subscribers get at THB
- THB Deep Dives — A deep dive report on a topic that goes far beyond a Substack post, with data, analyses, and links you’ll find nowhere else
- My Books — PDFs of three books so far, a >$100 value: Hurricanes (with Roger Pielke Sr.), Disasters and Climate Change (2nd edition) and The Climate Fix
- THB Insider — subscriber-only posts
- Five Figures — five (or so) of the most provocative, interesting, or challenging figures to recently cross my desk
- Legacy THB Posts — the archive of earlier paid-subscriber posts
- Data, spreadsheets and methods — the data, spreadsheets and methods behind THB analyses
Analysis
Research, data and argument, one question at a time.
Plausible Scenarios Still Indicate 2°C to 3°CAn update of Pielke et al. 2022 with four more years of emissions data, 2025 IEA outlook, IPCC AR6 database, and the new CMIP7 scenarios.
Is the New HIGH Climate Scenario Plausible?Good news and bad news from a close look at the new CMIP7 scenarios.
Three Hard Truths About France's WildfiresWorse fire weather, less fire on the ground, and mitigation benefits detectable only in models.
El Niño Means Fewer Atlantic Hurricanes — But More Activity WorldwideA strong El Niño is emerging in 2026. History tells us what we might expect.
The Retreat ContinuesUpdated again, lower again. CMIP7's highest emissions scenario now has less than half the CO₂ of RCP8.5.
Energy Transition: Yes, No, Maybe?THB figures and tables from the 2026 EI Statistical Review of World Energy.
THB Deep Dive Reports
Long-form reports, each on a single question.
ENSO, U.S. Hurricanes, and Global DisastersAn update of my work with Chris Landsea on how El Niño and La Niña shape U.S. hurricane damage, extended to global disaster losses.
The University ProblemA look back at THB posts on the troubles of U.S. universities, as public confidence in higher education rebounds.
Five Figures
A monthly set of charts worth a closer look.
Five Figures - April 2026Some of the best figures to cross my desk this month.
Five Figures - December Bonus IssueDark Oil Tankers, Moderates' Confidence in Science, Energy Skills Gap, Red State/Blue State Electricity Prices, Southern Hemisphere Wheat, and the Revenge of the Climate Realists!
Five Figures - October 2025Collapse of support for climate, the Baby Boom, Fertility Dropping Everywhere, Science as Marketing in the U.S. Congress, and the Panda in the Living Room.
Five Figures - August 2025Extreme fire correction, sea level rise acceleration, disappearing horses, and the politicization of the Fed.
Five Figures - July 2025Interesting data and graphs that crossed my desk this month.
THB Insider
Notes, reading lists and follow-ups for paid subscribers.
Summer ReadingA summer reading list for paid subscribers.
"Gravediggers of Science"Recollections of crossing paths with Paul Ehrlich, the prophet of doom, who died last week at 93.
Awesome Weekend ReadingA wide range of reading that recently crossed my desk.
THB Insider #28 - Thanksgiving ReadingGratitude, Brexit, Poverty Line Debate, Trust in Science, Population Control and Much More!
Another Climate "Science" Scandal?THB Turns 5.
My Aon Talk and Australia PapersTHB Australia Week Continues.
Reference Pages
Standing pages: legacy posts, books and more.
Five FiguresEvery month, five (or so) of the most provocative, interesting, or challenging figures to recently cross my desk.- Legacy Posts for Paid SubscribersPaid-subscriber posts from before THB Insider, with many unpaywalled peer-reviewed articles.
- THB InsiderEvery THB Insider post: analyses, discussion and commentary beyond the public posts at THB.
- My BooksPDFs of three books: Hurricanes (with Roger Pielke Sr.), Disasters and Climate Change (2nd edition) and The Climate Fix.
All-Access for THB Paid SubscribersThe one-stop home for everything beyond the paywall: books, subscriber-only posts, PDFs and more.
Free Copy of My Book, Disasters & Climate ChangeFor paid subscribers: Instructions for downloading.
All Posts
- Plausible Scenarios Still Indicate 2°C to 3°CAn update of Pielke et al. 2022 with four more years of emissions data, 2025 IEA outlook, IPCC AR6 database, and the new CMIP7 scenarios.
- Is the New HIGH Climate Scenario Plausible?Good news and bad news from a close look at the new CMIP7 scenarios.
- Summer ReadingA summer reading list for paid subscribers.
- Three Hard Truths About France's WildfiresWorse fire weather, less fire on the ground, and mitigation benefits detectable only in models.
- El Niño Means Fewer Atlantic Hurricanes — But More Activity WorldwideA strong El Niño is emerging in 2026. History tells us what we might expect.
- The Retreat ContinuesUpdated again, lower again. CMIP7's highest emissions scenario now has less than half the CO₂ of RCP8.5.
- Energy Transition: Yes, No, Maybe?THB figures and tables from the 2026 EI Statistical Review of World Energy.
- THB World Cup Special: VAR has Gone too FarWhy we should roll back video assisted refereeing.
- Europe's Weather Losses Keep ClimbingBut a new loss normalization finds no trend after accounting for economic growth.
- Another Pillar of Climate Advocacy CollapsesThe 2004 "stabilization wedges" paper wrongly told the world that we had all the technology we needed to solve climate change. We just learned it was ghost-written by BP. Here is the bigger picture.
- Europe's Deadly Aversion to Air ConditioningTens of thousands die in European summers for want of a technology the rest of the rich world takes for granted.
- ENSO, U.S. Hurricanes, and Global DisastersAn update of my work with Chris Landsea on how El Niño and La Niña shape U.S. hurricane damage, extended to global disaster losses.
- Can America Build Nuclear Again? Part 3Federal policy options for a nuclear forward agenda.
- How Climate Science Lost Its Way on ScenariosA summary of our 2021 deep dive on what went wrong.
- 🚨RCP8.5 is Officially DeadThe most significant development in climate research in decades.
- Understanding the 'Iron Law' of Climate PolicyPart 3 of The Shrinking Economic Weight of Energy.
- Five Figures - April 2026Some of the best figures to cross my desk this month.
- Tornado Damage and Frequency: An Update Through 2025No upward trends in normalized tornado losses or in major tornado incidence.
- The University ProblemA look back at THB posts on the troubles of U.S. universities, as public confidence in higher education rebounds.
- The Economic Costs of the Iran WarWhat the Iran conflict costs U.S. consumers, farmers, and equities.
- A New Index of G20 Energy SecurityPlus - Estimated structural exposure to the Hormuz crisis.
- Mission ImpossibleA simple analysis shows that U.K. cannot meet its net zero goals.
- "Gravediggers of Science"Recollections of crossing paths with Paul Ehrlich, the prophet of doom, who died last week at 93.
- How Europe Undermined Its Own Energy SecurityThe revealing math behind Europe's nuclear power blunder.
- Awesome Weekend ReadingA wide range of reading that recently crossed my desk.
- Five Figures - December Bonus IssueDark Oil Tankers, Moderates' Confidence in Science, Energy Skills Gap, Red State/Blue State Electricity Prices, Southern Hemisphere Wheat, and the Revenge of the Climate Realists!
- THB Insider #28 - Thanksgiving ReadingGratitude, Brexit, Poverty Line Debate, Trust in Science, Population Control and Much More!
- The Global Population Crisis that Never WasApocalyptic visions of over-population have always been grounded more in politics than science.
- Another Climate "Science" Scandal?THB Turns 5.
- Five Figures - October 2025Collapse of support for climate, the Baby Boom, Fertility Dropping Everywhere, Science as Marketing in the U.S. Congress, and the Panda in the Living Room.
- My Aon Talk and Australia PapersTHB Australia Week Continues.
- THB Insider #24Thoughts on my testimony, NAS on CWG, Mass. Court rules on DOE CWG, AEI EPA EF event!
- "The Most Important Role For Experts Is To Say Things That Politicians Don’t Welcome"The full transcript of my podcast with Maynard Holt of Veriten.
- Five Figures - August 2025Extreme fire correction, sea level rise acceleration, disappearing horses, and the politicization of the Fed.
- Five FiguresEvery month, five (or so) of the most provocative, interesting, or challenging figures to recently cross my desk.
- Five Figures - July 2025Interesting data and graphs that crossed my desk this month.
- Legacy Posts for Paid SubscribersPaid-subscriber posts from before THB Insider, with many unpaywalled peer-reviewed articles.
- THB InsiderEvery THB Insider post: analyses, discussion and commentary beyond the public posts at THB.
- My BooksPDFs of three books: Hurricanes (with Roger Pielke Sr.), Disasters and Climate Change (2nd edition) and The Climate Fix.
- My American Story - July 4, 2025A July 4 reflection on my own American story.
- Summer School is InNotes from the short course I taught in the AEI Summer Honors Program.
- What Did We Expect Would Happen?My Oslo talk on how science became so political in the United States.
- Five of My Favorite Papers and the Stories Behind ThemAfter leaving academia, a look back at thirty years of research through five papers and the stories behind them.
- THB Insider #18Follow Up Edition - Mann's Million, Materials, and More.
- Weekend ReadingThe best reading from my desk this week, plus my new paper on the ICAT hurricane loss dataset.
- THB Insider #15The best that crossed my desk this week ... and there is a lot!
- THB Insider #13Following Up THB Posts, What Happened Since?
- THB 2025 PredictionsTen questions anticipating the next year.
- THB Insider #12Coal, LNG, China S&T Agreement, a new preprint, and more!
- Shrinking the TentTrying out BlueSky as an alternative to X/Twitter for discussing energy and climate.
- THB 2024 Election SpecialA special THB Insider on the 2024 U.S. election.
- THB Insider #9A new THB AI Chatbot and this week's recommended reading, listening, and watching.
- Japan Offers a Glimpse into the FutureAn energy trilemma meets political change.
- THB Insider #8Things are hotting up!
- THB Insider #7Hurricane deep dive, preview of coming attractions, and another AMA.
- THB Insider #5A full copy of Hurricanes: their Nature and Impacts on Society.
- THB Insider #4A few responses to my viral post this week & some interesting links.
- Climate Science is About to Make a Huge MistakeIt is déjà vu all over again.
- THB Insider #2Good climate reporting, CCS, Nuclear, LNG, an invitation, a new poll and more.
- THB Insider #1A new feature for THB Pro Subscribers.
- End the Week with THBThe very best of what crossed my desk and some announcements.
- Alternative FactsA new essay from Ted Nordhaus explains how extreme events came to represent climate change contrary to an overwhelming scientific consensus.
- The Climate Fix Book Club, Chapter 9 & Full BookObliquity, Innovation, and a Pragmatic Future.
- Your Questions, My Answers - December 2023Individual climate action, optimal carbon dioxide levels and surviving in academia.
- The Climate Fix Book Club, Chapter 8The Politicization of Climate Science.
- The Climate Fix Book Club, Chapter 7Disasters, Death, and Destruction.
- End the Week with THBSome cool, crazy and confounding items that crossed my desk this week.
- VAR has Gone too FarWhy we should roll back technology-assisted refereeing.
- The Climate Fix Book Club, Chapter 6How Climate Policy Went Off Course and the First Steps Back in the Right Direction.
- End the Week with THBSo much good stuff -- why nukes beat wind, OPEC vs. IEA, Aon on disasters, Pielke's politics and more.
- The politics of exclusionAnalyzing U.S. state responses to interscholastic transgender athletes.
- Start the week with THBWhat you need to know: Hawaii fire, US fossil fuels, who the rich vote for & some THB follow ups.
- Weekend Catch-UpCovidgate update, Media freak-outs and failings, Heat deaths.
- The Climate Fix Book Club, Chapter 5Technological Fixes and Backstops.
- Weekend ReadingSome items worth your time.
- Your Questions, My AnswersScientific agreement on climate, some career lessons, 2030 energy technologies, politicization of climate science, how I'm doing, climate deaths & more!
- Climate Change and Disaster LossesA fresh update to an overwhelming scientific consensus.
- All-Access for THB Paid SubscribersThe one-stop home for everything beyond the paywall: books, subscriber-only posts, PDFs and more.
- Book Club: Chapter 4 of The Climate FixLet's Discuss!
- Is it Time to Retire Academic Tenure?Some Republicans and university administrators seem to think so. I do not.
- Your Questions, My AnswersTipping Points, Substack vs. Twitter, the Insect Apocalypse & More!
- Book Club: Chapter 3 of The Climate FixLet's Discuss!
- Book Review: Escape From Model LandAn excellent book on a wickedly complex subject.
- A Primer on Implausible Climate ScenariosWhat you need to know in advance of the IPCC Synthesis Report.
- The COVID-19 Origins Debate Opens UpNew evidence arises following a heated congressional hearing.
- Your Questions, My AnswersAcademic Climate, ChatGPT and Research, Climate Trade-Offs, Public Engagement and Climate Emergencies.
- Off Target: An Evaluation of the Stern Review's Climate Disaster PredictionsEscalating climate destruction has yet to occur as forecast.
- Book Club: Chapter 2 of The Climate FixLet's Discuss!
- What the media won't tell you about . . . TornadoesLet's take a look at what the data and science actually say.
- Your Questions, My AnswersAnswers on data errors at the Science journals, promoting nuclear power and expanding U.S. transmission.
- Pielke's Weekly Memo #23What climate science tells me about climate policy.
- Pielke's Weekly Memo #22Your Questions, My Answers.
- Will 2023 see a rise in eco-terrorism?Why we should be concerned.
- Pielke's Weekly Memo #21Ehrlich & Eugenics, Climate Change Makes Us Stupid and a Flawed New Hurricane Paper.
- The Honest Broker 2023 Home Office PoolPredictions are a mugs game, let's play!
- Pielke's Weekly Memo #20A new podcast, three freshly ungated articles & my UCL talk on science advice.
- Pielke's Weekly Memo #19A sneak peek at normalized U.S. hurricane losses 1900 to 2022.
- The 2022 Seasonal Hurricane Forecast BustWhat lessons can we take?
- How Can FIFA be Held Accountable?The uncomfortable answer is, not very easily.
- Pielke's Weekly Memo #18A Trip on the Thames and My Oxford Lecture.
- How the Myth of the Population Bomb Was BornAs the world passes 8 billion people, a look back at the modern origins of neo-Malthusianism.
- Pielke's Weekly Memo #17COP27 Special: What to Read, Misinformation of the Week and U.S. Hurricane Update.
- Climate Misinformation from the Biden AdministrationThe draft U.S. National Climate Assessment is about political promotion not scientific assessment.
- Opening Up the Climate Policy EnvelopeFudged assumptions about the future are hampering efforts to deal with climate change in the present. It’s time to get real.
- The Honest Broker - Join my new subscriber chatA private space for us to converse and connect.
- Pielke's Weekly Memo #16The NYT mystery resolved! Plus political contributions of U.S. scientists and more good news on climate.
- Pielke's Weekly Memo #15A mysterious disappearing article at the NYT, THB updates, an absolutely amazing graph & recommended readings and podcasts.
- Pielke's Weekly Memo #14Slides from and discussion of my "Climate Misinformation" talk today.
- Pielke's Weekly Memo #13Disaster Denialism, Coming Attractions and A Few Freshly Ungated Papers.
- SERIES: Making Sense of Trends in Disaster LossesPart 3: Normalized Hurricane Losses in the United States, 1900 to 2021.
- The Most Important Questions for Scientists to Ask About AdvocacySummary of my talk yesterday in Leipzig, Germany.
- Trust Me, I'm A ScientistA short talk I gave yesterday at the Wellcome Connecting Science conference on Reproducibility, Replicability and Trust in Science.
- Pielke's Weekly Memo #11A starter set of essential slides for understanding climate science, impacts and policy.
- Pielke's Weekly Memo #10The most misunderstood term in climate science, perils of following the science, recommended podcasts, readings and a classic goal of the week.
- Free Copy of My Book, Disasters & Climate ChangeFor paid subscribers: Instructions for downloading.
- Pielke's Weekly Memo #7More on the IRA, World Triathlon trans policy, great news you haven't heard & some recommended readings.
- Weekend Reading #6Manchin Redux, US Tornadoes, London Fires & Men vs Women Athletic Performance.
- Weekend Reading #5Manchin, Eco-terrorism, Fires in Spain & Germany's Coal Re-start.
- Weekend Reading #4Some follow up suggestions on ESG investing, regulation of athlete eligibility and global temperature targets.
- Two Things All ESG Investors Should Know About Climate ScenariosScenarios are so complex that implausibility is often invisible making misuse inevitable.
- Weekend Reading #3Supreme Court on climate, making sense of "event attribution," and PAC-12 RIP.
- Weekend Reading #1Some quick notes on recommended readings and what's upcoming at THB.
- Free Book! Disasters and Climate ChangeIn appreciation of my new subscribers.
- The Global Population Crisis that Never WasApocalyptic visions of over-population have always been grounded more in politics than science.
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Data Packs
Coming soon: data downloads from the THB dashboards.