Research, data and argument, one question at a time.
- Plausible Scenarios Still Indicate 2°C to 3°CAn update of Pielke et al. 2022 with four more years of emissions data, 2025 IEA outlook, IPCC AR6 database, and the new CMIP7 scenarios.
- Is the New HIGH Climate Scenario Plausible?Good news and bad news from a close look at the new CMIP7 scenarios.
- Three Hard Truths About France's WildfiresWorse fire weather, less fire on the ground, and mitigation benefits detectable only in models.
- El Niño Means Fewer Atlantic Hurricanes — But More Activity WorldwideA strong El Niño is emerging in 2026. History tells us what we might expect.
- The Retreat ContinuesUpdated again, lower again. CMIP7's highest emissions scenario now has less than half the CO₂ of RCP8.5.
- Energy Transition: Yes, No, Maybe?THB figures and tables from the 2026 EI Statistical Review of World Energy.
- THB World Cup Special: VAR has Gone too FarWhy we should roll back video assisted refereeing.
- Europe's Weather Losses Keep ClimbingBut a new loss normalization finds no trend after accounting for economic growth.
- Another Pillar of Climate Advocacy CollapsesThe 2004 "stabilization wedges" paper wrongly told the world that we had all the technology we needed to solve climate change. We just learned it was ghost-written by BP. Here is the bigger picture.
- Europe's Deadly Aversion to Air ConditioningTens of thousands die in European summers for want of a technology the rest of the rich world takes for granted.
- Can America Build Nuclear Again? Part 3Federal policy options for a nuclear forward agenda.
- How Climate Science Lost Its Way on ScenariosA summary of our 2021 deep dive on what went wrong.
- 🚨RCP8.5 is Officially DeadThe most significant development in climate research in decades.
- Understanding the 'Iron Law' of Climate PolicyPart 3 of The Shrinking Economic Weight of Energy.
- Tornado Damage and Frequency: An Update Through 2025No upward trends in normalized tornado losses or in major tornado incidence.
- The Economic Costs of the Iran WarWhat the Iran conflict costs U.S. consumers, farmers, and equities.
- A New Index of G20 Energy SecurityPlus - Estimated structural exposure to the Hormuz crisis.
- Mission ImpossibleA simple analysis shows that U.K. cannot meet its net zero goals.
- How Europe Undermined Its Own Energy SecurityThe revealing math behind Europe's nuclear power blunder.
- The Global Population Crisis that Never WasApocalyptic visions of over-population have always been grounded more in politics than science.
- THB 2025 PredictionsTen questions anticipating the next year.
- Japan Offers a Glimpse into the FutureAn energy trilemma meets political change.
- Climate Science is About to Make a Huge MistakeIt is déjà vu all over again.
- Alternative FactsA new essay from Ted Nordhaus explains how extreme events came to represent climate change contrary to an overwhelming scientific consensus.
- The Climate Fix Book Club, Chapter 9 & Full BookObliquity, Innovation, and a Pragmatic Future.
- The Climate Fix Book Club, Chapter 8The Politicization of Climate Science.
- The Climate Fix Book Club, Chapter 7Disasters, Death, and Destruction.
- VAR has Gone too FarWhy we should roll back technology-assisted refereeing.
- The Climate Fix Book Club, Chapter 6How Climate Policy Went Off Course and the First Steps Back in the Right Direction.
- The politics of exclusionAnalyzing U.S. state responses to interscholastic transgender athletes.
- The Climate Fix Book Club, Chapter 5Technological Fixes and Backstops.
- Climate Change and Disaster LossesA fresh update to an overwhelming scientific consensus.
- Book Club: Chapter 4 of The Climate FixLet's Discuss!
- Is it Time to Retire Academic Tenure?Some Republicans and university administrators seem to think so. I do not.
- Book Club: Chapter 3 of The Climate FixLet's Discuss!
- Book Review: Escape From Model LandAn excellent book on a wickedly complex subject.
- A Primer on Implausible Climate ScenariosWhat you need to know in advance of the IPCC Synthesis Report.
- The COVID-19 Origins Debate Opens UpNew evidence arises following a heated congressional hearing.
- Off Target: An Evaluation of the Stern Review's Climate Disaster PredictionsEscalating climate destruction has yet to occur as forecast.
- Book Club: Chapter 2 of The Climate FixLet's Discuss!
- What the media won't tell you about . . . TornadoesLet's take a look at what the data and science actually say.
- Will 2023 see a rise in eco-terrorism?Why we should be concerned.
- The Honest Broker 2023 Home Office PoolPredictions are a mugs game, let's play!
- The 2022 Seasonal Hurricane Forecast BustWhat lessons can we take?
- How Can FIFA be Held Accountable?The uncomfortable answer is, not very easily.
- How the Myth of the Population Bomb Was BornAs the world passes 8 billion people, a look back at the modern origins of neo-Malthusianism.
- Climate Misinformation from the Biden AdministrationThe draft U.S. National Climate Assessment is about political promotion not scientific assessment.
- Opening Up the Climate Policy EnvelopeFudged assumptions about the future are hampering efforts to deal with climate change in the present. It’s time to get real.
- The Honest Broker - Join my new subscriber chatA private space for us to converse and connect.
- SERIES: Making Sense of Trends in Disaster LossesPart 3: Normalized Hurricane Losses in the United States, 1900 to 2021.
- The Most Important Questions for Scientists to Ask About AdvocacySummary of my talk yesterday in Leipzig, Germany.
- Trust Me, I'm A ScientistA short talk I gave yesterday at the Wellcome Connecting Science conference on Reproducibility, Replicability and Trust in Science.
- Two Things All ESG Investors Should Know About Climate ScenariosScenarios are so complex that implausibility is often invisible making misuse inevitable.
- The Global Population Crisis that Never WasApocalyptic visions of over-population have always been grounded more in politics than science.